The Beak Basketball Breakdown: The Bearcats

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It is always a battle when the Cardinals face off against the Bearcats and that won’t change this season as both teams are looking to sit atop of the AAC. This is the Cards oldest rival and this game is the 98th meeting in UofL and UC series. It dates back to Metro Conference, Missouri Valley , Conference USA, Big East and now AAC. Louisville leads this series with our old foes from the north 55 to 42 and have won the last two against the Bearcats including a 67-51 last March. Cincinnati improved to 19-2 overall and 8-0 in the AAC on Sunday with a win over Temple, and are ranked 15th by AP and 16th in the USA Today poll. Our Cardinals have won four straight heading into the game on Thursday night at 7PM on ESPN.

Coach Mick Cronin will bring one of his most physical and athletic teams into the Yum Center on Thursday. Cincinnati is among the national leaders in five key defensive statistics including scoring defense (56.9, fifth nationally), turnover margin (+4.6, 10th), scoring margin (+14.3, 15th), field goal percentage defense (.383, 15th) and blocked shots (6.3, 14th). It will be an experienced and established UC team lead by Sean Kilpatrick (19.1 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.4 apg), and a great supporting cast of characters including Titus Rubles (7.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 2.2 apg), Shaquille Thomas (7.2 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 1.2 apg), David Nyarsuk (1.4 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 0.1 apg), Jermaine Sanders (6.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.0 apg), Troy Caupain (6.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.5 apg), and Justin Jackson (11.1 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 1.8 apg). These guys can all protect the rim and rebound.

Kilpatrick leads the American in scoring, ranks second in three-pointers made and fifth in free-throw shooting. He has scored 20 or more points in 10 games this season, and has been the Bearcats’ top scorer in 18 of 21 games.
Rubles is averaging career highs in minutes played, points and rebounds. He ranks eighth in the American in rebounding since the start of league action.
Jackson ranks second in the nation in total blocks and seventh in blocks per game. He ranks among the American’s leaders in blocks, offensive rebounds, rebounds and field-goal shooting. He is considered day-to-day as of Sunday, though head coach Mick Cronin remains hopeful that he’ll play on Thursday. He’s the key to a Cincinnati defense that hadn’t allowed opponents to eclipse 67 points against them prior to Sunday.
These guys could very much be the top contender for the AAC this year and will be the toughest competition for our Cards during this regular season.

UC comes into Thursday’s game averaging 71.2 points-per-game, while shooting 43.1% from the floor and 33.9% from 3-point range. The Bearcats are converting 70.5% of their attempts from the free-throw line. Defensively, UC is allowing 56.9 points-per-game as the opposition is shooting 38.3% from the floor. The Bearcats are out-rebounded their opponents 777-679 with a rebounding margin of +4.7 averaging 37 boards-per-contest.

UC
2013-14 OVERALL RANKINGS
-POINTS PER GAME
71.2
195th
OVERALL
-REBOUNDS PER GAME
37.0
94th
OVERALL
-ASSISTS PER GAME
13.2
147th
OVERALL
-FIELD GOAL PCT
.431
243rd
OVERALL

Kenpom Ranks
Overall – #23
Defense Adjustment Efficiency
– 89.4 ranks 5th
Offensive Adjustment Efficiency
– 107.1 ranks 119th

UC is off to their best start in coach Cronin’s eight-year tenure. He is a guy that embodies the leadership, courage and determination of all of his mentors. And he has passed that down to his team. They are relentless on the defensive end of the floor and they dig in to grind on teams for the full 40. Russ Smith is averaging 20.1 points on 46.0 percent shooting with 4.6 assists per game in AAC play. He poured in a game-high 18 points in last year’s meeting with the Bearcats and we will need him to be big on Thursday. Rozier and Blackshear have been a big reason for the Cards four game win streak and they will also need to keep it going. This will be the most physical contest that our front-court will face this season. Montrezl, Mango and VanTreese have to be willing to get in the paint and bang with these guys. I like our match-up on the wings and hope (old man) Luke comes to play. Chris Jones is expected to be back but he will probably see limited minutes as this will be a tough comeback game. You can never count out the sixth man and the Yum Center will be a big part of this game Thursday. Cardinal fans are hungry and it’s been too long since the last home game. Home court will be the difference in this one and our Cards will grind out a tough one for the win. This will be the last time we play UC at the Yum Center for the foreseeable future. Can’t wait for this one folks. Go Cards!