Our Louisville Cardinals (16-4, 4-3 Big East) find themselves needing a win more than any other time this season as they face the Pittsburgh Panthers (17-4, 5-3 Big East) Monday Night in the Yum Center. This will be a battle of two Big East foes going in different directions. Our Cards are trending downward having lost their last three games in conference play, but the Panthers are playing some of their best basketball of the season winning their last four games in conference play. Their 38 point win against DePaul on Saturday was their biggest margin of victory ever in a Big East contest. In the Cards loss on Saturday they were held to their lowest point total of the season.

Jamie Dixon is in his 10th season leading the Panthers. Over the last 11 years, Pitt ranks among the nation’s top five programs in winning percentage (.761, 312-98). During that remarkable run, the Panthers never reached the Final Four. But they did go to the NCAA Elite Eight once, made five Sweet 16 appearances and won six Big East titles. They didn’t make it in the NCAA Tournament last year due to some injuries to key players. They are healthy this year and their 10 man rotation that includes returning players Tray Woodall, Dante Taylor and Lamar Patterson have the Panthers back to their winning ways and in sole possession of third place in a chaotic Big East Conference. The Panthers have a very balanced attack on offense having 3 players averaging in double figures and 4 others averaging over 6 points a game. They rank 11th nationally in field goal percentage, 7th in scoring margin at 17.7 and 6th in assist per game at 17.6. Kenpom has their Adj efficiency on offense at 117.5 ranked 8th.
They can also get after you defensively as this team ranks first in the land in defensive rebounds allowed at just 23.8 per game, and sixth in total points allowed at 54.4 per night. Kenpom has their Adj efficiency on defense at 87.1 ranked 21st. He has them ranked 6th overall. Their current RPI is 47.

In-conference offense: 3pt-34.2%, 2pt-44.9%, FT-64.8%
In-conference defense: Turnovers-14.8pg/4th, Steals-7pg/6th, Blocks-4.5pg/4th

Coach Jamie Dixon: “I think our guys are recognizing what we’ve been trying to get across to them defensively.”

The Panther Players:

-Projected Starters

Lamar Patterson JR (10.2 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.3 apg) 6-5 F a guy with soft hands who is both comfortable with and effective at distributing the rock. He is also a great defender, rebounder and shooter. He ranks in the Big East 13th 50.8/FG%, 15th 37.9/3PT%, 10th 1.8/steals,

Talib Zanna JR (11.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 0.7 apg) 6-9 F is a strong, physical athlete who combines skill and athleticism to create matchup problems. He loves to attack off the dribble from the outside and is an aggressive and physical rebounder. He is shooting 55.9/FG% and 67.4/FT%.

Steven Adams FR (6.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 0.6 apg) 7-0 C His defensive play has been compared to that of Greg Oden, and he emerged as a consensus top 10 recruit. ESPN tabbed him a five-star player, the No. 4 center and the No. 6 player overall in the class of 2012. Last year Big East opponents ate the Panthers alive in the paint, making 51 percent of their twos with Adams patrolling the paint those days are over. Or at least until he’s picked in the NBA draft. He ranks in the Big East 13th in rebounding, 4th in blocked shots at 2.1pg. He is shooting 58.2/FG%, and 35.9/FT%.

Tray Woodall SR (10.5 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 5.8 apg) 6-0 G is back on the court for his senior season after a frustrating year in which he battled through a severe abdominal injury. He has a knack for hitting clutch shots, leads the Panthers in assists this season. He ranks in the Big East 5th in assist, 11th in steals at 1.6pg, 3rd in assist/turnover ratio at +2.9. He is shooting 47.6/FG%, 37.3/3PT% and 75.7/FT%.

James Robinson FR (6.7 ppg, 2,0 rpg, 3.9 apg) 6-3 G is nicknamed “Mr. Consistent,” Robinson was a member of the 2012 USA Basketball U18 national team. ESPN rated Robinson a four-star recruit and the No. 4 point guard in the country. He is shooting 38.3/FG%, 33.3/3PT% and 77.3/FT%.

-Bench

Dante Taylor SR (4.7 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 0.6 apg) 6-9 F is one of the finest offensive rebounders in the country. The former McDonald’s All-American provides a good spark off the bench for Pitt. He shoots 56.1/FG%, and 65.5/FT%.

Trey Zeigler JR (6.0 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 2.1 apg) 6-5 G/F is unlike most shooting guards in that he’s not big on chucking 3-pointers he’s taken just three all year and instead relies on slashing to the rim or pulling up for a midrange jumper. That means he’s around the basket quite a bit, making him an effective rebounder. Nearly half 14 of his 39 boards have come off the offensive glass and he’s shown a knack for tipping a ball to a teammate for an easy put back. He is shooting 52.2/FG% and 55.6/FT%.

J.J. Moore JR (9.0 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 0.5 apg) 6-6 F is a constant scoring source off the bench for the Panthers. He is a great athlete and has 37 inch vertical leap. He can score from all over the floor. He is shooting 43.4/FG%, 27.8/3PT% and 85.5/FT%.

Cameron Wright SOPH (4.5 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 1.0 apg) 6-4 G enters his third and redshirt sophomore season at Pitt after contributing primarily at the off-guard position last year. A quick and athletic defender with size, Wright is described as a “complete” package who fits perfectly into Pitt’s style of play. He is shooting 52.9/FG%, 60/3PT% and 47.6/FT%.

Durand Johnson FR (4.6 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 0.7 apg) 6-6 F is a terrific shooter with NBA range who can make big shots and score at a high level. Johnson is as smooth a shooter as they come. He has a great shot fake, range on his jumper and quick trigger with the ability to pull off the catch or step back. He is shooting 39.2/FG%, 36.4/3PT% and 72.2/FT%.

Coach Pitino said “We have to get this win. It‘s a must game for us.” And while agree with this statement for the mental health of the team I don’t necessarily think it is a must win from a season standpoint. Granted we have lost 3 in a row but if you look at those losses closely you will see that they aren’t that serious in the big picture. Cuse is one of the best teams in the country, GTown is also a very good team especially at home and Nova is trending upward after beating Cuse.

I think the recipe for a win is quite simple. This team just needs to play the game they are capable of. Despite the misfortunes of the past week this Cardinal team is still a very talented group. We got a player in Russ that is 10th in the league in scoring, Gorgui is #1 in the league in rebounding, Chane is 8th in the league in rebounding, Chane is also #1 in the league in steals, Peyton is 4th in the league in steals, Luke is 6th in the league in 3PT%, Gorgui is 2nd in the league in blocked shots, Peyton is 7th in the league in assist/turnover ratio, Gorgui is 1st in the league in offensive rebounding, Chane is 4th in offensive rebounding and Gorgui is 1st in defensive rebounding.

With this many players in the top 10 of the statistics in the league there is no need to panic. They just need to refocus. And Monday night I think you will see that group of focused, hungry athletes we watched earlier this season.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 78 Pittsburgh 69