It has been a season of ups and downs for the Louisville football team. Through the first part of the schedule the Cardinals have adjusted on the fly with injuries to key players, offensive line woes and inconsistent play overall. After a much needed bye week they head into the meat of their schedule and finally have some of those key guys back to full strength and seem to have some of the kinks worked out on offense particularly the offensive line. This couldn’t have come at a better time as the Cardinals prepare to play one of the biggest games of the season. This football team has their morale building win, had their momentum win and now it’s time for their monumental win.
On Saturday at high noon the Cardinals travel to play the #11 ranked Florida State Seminoles in the “Doak”. They aren’t the defending champs this season but are still arguably one of the best teams in college football. The Cardinals and Seminoles have played 15 times in their history. Florida State leads the series 13-2. Those two wins by Louisville came in the very first game between these teams and in a meeting back in 2002. The Cardinals won that game 26-20 in what was then the biggest win in the programs history. On Saturday the Cardinals will have another chance at getting another notch in their belt with what could be a season defining win. The Cardinals did win in Tallahassee on Oct. 4, 1952, 41-14. The great Johnny U led the way in that one with three touchdown passes. FSU has won eight-straight games at home versus the Cardinals since.
Florida State improved to 5-0 on the season after beating Miami 29-24 at home last weekend. They haven’t looked as dominate as they did a year ago, but they continue to find a way to win, and have a very deep football team with a lot of talent across the board. They have great players at all of their skill positions, offensive line, and defense. They are ranked 47th in the country in total offense with 2,162 yards and 19 touchdowns. They are ranked 22nd in total defense allowing only 1,551 yards and 8 touchdowns. The Seminoles have won 13 home ACC games, 17 consecutive home games and 27 straight overall matchups with ACC opponents. The Noles are also looking to go 6-0 for the third straight season.
The Seminoles have a pretty balanced offensive attack, and they do run the ball well and pass the ball with very good efficiency. Jameis Winston is now throwing touchdown passes for Tampa Bay, but the Seminoles still have a pretty good gun slinger in their backfield. Everett Golson is completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,077 yards, eight touchdowns and zero interceptions. Golson has a touchdown pass in five straight games, and also has 139 pass attempts without an INT this season. Florida State has gone 18 straight quarters without turning the ball over. Golson has a very good group of target to throw the ball to. They are all very rangy, fast and athletic. Jesus Wilson is their leader in receiving with 256 yards, and is tied for the team lead with two receiving touchdowns. Travis Rudolph has a team leading 23 receptions so far with 239 yards and 2 touchdowns. He torched Louisville last season in their comeback win with a 68 yard receiving gallop for a touchdown. Kermit Whitfield has 20 receptions and has recorded 531 all-purpose yards so far this season with 225 yards receiving.
The meat and potatoes of this offense going forward will be their ability to run the football. They are averaging 203.4 yards per contest, with RB Dalvin Cook leading the way with 792 yards and eight touchdowns. He is just the third Florida State tailback to have multiple 200 yard rushing games. He had the game-winning 38-yard TD run vs. Louisville last year with time running out. RB Johnathan Vickers will be their change of pace guy in this game and he is filling in for injured RB Mario Pender. Vickers has 2 touchdowns this season. Their bulldozing fullback Freddie Stevenson has 2 catches this season for 17 yards and 3 carries for 9 yards. This group has not lost a fumble on 177 rushing attempts.
Normally I wouldn’t mention a kicker in my game breakdowns but in this case I have to because Florida State has probably the best kicker in the country in Roberto Aguayo. He has made 97.4 percent 223-of-229 of his career kicks. He is 168-168 on PATs and his 168 straight PATs, set an ACC record. He is 55-of-61 on field goals for his career. When you have a guy like this who is pretty much automatic it makes a big difference in a game.
Task with stopping this Florida state offensive attack is a Louisville defense that will be coming off their best game of the season against NC State. They have gotten better every game and I look for them to take another big step forward on Saturday. The Cardinals are allowing 20.2 points and 323.8 yards per game and are ranked in the Top 20 nationally in fourth down defense (19th), first downs allowed (18th), kickoff return yards (14th), net punting (13th), punt defense (19th), and turnovers gained (20th). Keith Kelsey leads the Cardinals with 44 tackles, Sheldon Rankins has four sacks. Chucky Williams, Trumaine Washington and Josh Harvey-Clemmons have two interceptions and Louisville ranks 12th in the country and first in the ACC with nine interceptions total. Devonte Fields who has been gaining momentum since the season opener has 24 tackles on the season and I think he will play a big part of Louisville stopping the very good FSU rushing attack. This defense is giving up an average of 40.5 yards per game on the ground in their last two wins. And shut down a NC rushing attack that had been rolling. They need to continue this pattern to beat the Seminoles. Folks this Louisville defense has a lot of new faces this season and like a good chili it just had to simmer for a while. They are becoming a pretty solid unit.
This Louisville football team has found its offensive identity. It took Coach Petrino a few games to figure out how to best utilize all of his talent but I think he’s found something pretty good. Lamar Jackson has quickly made a name for himself rushing for 487 yards with five touchdowns and is just 69 yards away from breaking the rushing record for a true freshman at Louisville. He is also completing 53.6 percent of his passes for 598 yards, and three touchdowns which isn’t too shabby. This kid has been a difference maker and will once again be one of the fastest guys on the field Saturday. With some adjustments made on the offensive line they also seem to be moving in the right direction and that has got things moving in the Louisville ground game rushing for 288 yards versus Samford and 203 yards in the win over NC State. It’s the first time Louisville had 200 plus yards rushing in consecutive games since the third and fourth game of the 2013 season against Kentucky and FIU. Jackson will have all of his wide receivers healthy and ready to go on Saturday. Jaylen Smith and Micky Crum have led the way with 375 receiving yards and two touchdowns while James Quick has 11 receptions for 141 yards and a touchdown. I look for Quick to really have a big day Saturday and for Jamari Staples and Ja’Quay Savage to start getting more involved.
Task with stopping Lamar Jackson and the Louisville attack will be a very athletic and sound Florida State defense that is allowing 14 points and 310.2 yards per game this season. Leading the Seminole defense up front is LB Reggie Northrup with 33 tackles. Northup sealed last year’s win over Louisville with his late game interception. DE DeMarcus Walker has 14 tackles along with 3.5 sacks and two forced fumbles over his last two games and he will really challenge the Cardinals lateral game with how well he attacks the edge. Leading the way for them in the secondary is CB Jalen Ramsey who leads the team with six pass deflections. He ranks 37th nationally with 1.2 passes defended per game. They also have two very good safeties. Nate Andrews is one of their most versatile guys in pass coverage, and Lamarcus Brutus is third on the team with 23 tackles. If Louisville has a shot at winning this game they’ll have to grab the momentum from this group early.
It is going to take a very good effort from our guys and things like turnovers, penalties, and mishaps will have to be kept to a minimum. We will really need Lamar Jackson to step up and lead the offensive unit and I think he could be the biggest key if our Cardinals can pull off this upset. This would be a monumental win for this group and for this season. Got a good feeling…
Louisville 34 FSU 31