The Beak Basketball Breakdown: The Tar Heels

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The Cardinals will take their 2-0 ACC record to tobacco road on Saturday afternoon to face the North Carolina Tar Heels. This will be the first time these teams play as conference foes. The teams are meeting for the second year in a row, as the Tar Heels beat the Cardinals 93-84 last season on Nov. 24 in the Hall of Fame Tipoff. Carolina leads the all-time series 9-3, and have won the last five out of six including two in a row. Saturday’s contest will also include a pair of Hall of Fame coaches on the sidelines, Roy Williams 735 wins (Hall of Fame class of 2007) and Rick Pitino 709 wins (class of 2013).

COACH PITINO TALKS ABOUT THE NORTH CAROLINA GAME

The Tar Heels are 1-1 and have won 5 of their last six games. The Tar Heels are facing their second consecutive ranked opponent, hoping to bounce back from Monday night’s loss to No. 13 Notre Dame. That defeat snapped a five-game Carolina winning streak. The one thing that this Carolina team has struggled with over the past couple of years is consistency. They look like world beaters in one game and come out uninspired in the next one. They have the talent and the depth but just haven’t been able to put it together night after night.

MONTREZL TALKS NORTH CAROLINA

North Carolina is averaging 80.1 points a game while shooting 45.3% from the floor, 30.5% from the three and 70% from the free throw line. They are led in scoring by Marcus Paige (13.5PPG), Kennedy Meeks (12.7PPG), Brice Johnson (11.3PPG), Justin Jackson (9.6PPG), and J.P. Tokoto (9.1PPG). Carolina’s defense is holding its opponents to 35.4% shooting this season, ranking second in the ACC. The Tar Heels lead the ACC in three-point field goal percentage defense at 26.1%. Carolina has held 13 of its first 15 opponents under 40% shooting from the floor. Carolina leads the ACC in offensive rebounding percentage at .449 (ranking second nationally) but is 14th of 15 ACC teams in defensive rebounding percentage at .677 (222nd nationally). The Tar Heels are very good when it comes to sharing the basketball averaging 17.8 a game ranked 8th nationally.

CHRIS JONES TALKS NORTH CAROLINA

Kennedy Meeks will be a big challenge for the Cardinals. He leads the team with 8.8 rebounds per game and 22 blocked shots. Meeks is tied with Montrezl for the lead in the ACC in double-doubles with six each. J.P. Tokoto has led UNC or tied for the team lead in assists nine times this season. Justin Jackson has scored in double figures three times in the last five games. Isaiah Hicks has been Carolina’s defensive player of the game a team-high six times this season.

North Carolina 2014-15 Overall Rankings Offense | Defense

OFFENSE
-POINTS PER GAME
80.1
16th
OVERALL
-REBOUNDS PER GAME
45.1
2nd
OVERALL
-ASSISTS PER GAME
17.8
8th
OVERALL
-FIELD GOAL PCT
.453
92nd
OVERALL

DEFENSE
-POINTS ALLOWED
64.4
147th
OVERALL
-REBOUNDS PER GAME
28.1
15th
OVERALL
-BLOCKS PER GAME
4.7
65th
OVERALL
-STEALS PER GAME
7.3
101st
OVERALL

2014-15 Kenpom Rankings
Overall- #11
Defense Adjustment Efficiency
-89.4 ranks 10th
Offense Adjustment Efficiency
-111.5 ranks 19th
-Per Kenpom’s game prediction he has Louisville losing the game 71-67 based on his indexes.

This North Carolina team is about like the match-up with UK when it comes to their length and athletic ability. The Cardinals are going to have to play great in transition defense and limit the Tar Heels in their fast break points, and they must have a good day on the glass just to be able to stay in this game. Louisville’s big four have come up big all season and they will need to have a good game on Saturday. I’m concerned about the production in the paint and would like to see the Cardinals get more out of that 5 spot on Saturday.

I don’t think the Cardinals have to play a perfect game to beat North Carolina on Saturday but they will have to play one of their best games of the season. They will be very motivated trying not to lose back-to-back games at home. This one has me nervous but I just can’t pick against our guys and think they will answer the bell on the defensive end of the floor. Plus I really like the way Chris Jones has been playing and think he comes up big on Saturday.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 67 North Carolina 63