March Madness: The Title Game Beak Breakdown Michigan

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Our Cards have won 15 straight games and have made it to the end of the road on their final four journey. They will face a young but very talented Michigan team to cut down the nets Monday night. This is the first title game for the Cardinals in 27 years. Louisville played Michigan in 1977 and won 88-85 and then played again in 1978 winning that game 86-84. Rick Pitino is 0-1 all-time against Michigan playing them in the 1993 Final Four against the Fab 5 and lost 81-78.

There are a few things you can confidently predict about a team coached by John Beilein. They will play slow. They will shoot lots of threes. They will take good care of the ball. Offensive rebounds and free throws will not be weapons. Beilein did a great job with under-the-radar recruits, and we now know what happens when he lands the big dogs. Michigan is one of the youngest teams in the field of 68. Beilein’s eight-man rotation consists of four highly touted freshmen, two sophomores and two juniors. This young group are an exceptional team on the offensive end of the floor but that hasn’t caught up to their defense. They do have a tendency to act their age at times and will often settle for jump shots, not get to the free-throw line and do a poor job of rebounding the ball. With such a wide variance between offensive and defensive efficiency most predicted the Wolverines to be upset in the previous rounds of the NCAA tourney. They have stepped up and done a good job of overcoming their deficiencies to make the national title game. On offense the Wolverines play a hybrid-Princeton offense that utilizes three or four guards at once, relies heavily on the 3-point shot and creating mismatches by setting ball screens. On defense they want to keep opponents off-balance by switching things up. Primarily a man-to-man defensive team, they will mix in some 2-3 zone and 1-3-1 zone at times the latter of which the Wolverines trap out of, causing serious headaches to opposing squads.

Kenpom:
ADJ Efficiency- Offense 121.7 Rank 1
ADJ Efficiency- Defense 91.6 Rank 32
Kenpom Overall Rank: 5th

Their National Statistics:
-POINTS PER GAME
75.2
27th
OVERALL
-REBOUNDS PER GAME
35.1
156th
OVERALL
-ASSISTS PER GAME
14.3
77th
OVERALL
-FIELD GOAL PCT
.484
9th
OVERALL

Michigan season averages on offense:
3pt-38.3%, 2pt-48.3%, FT-70%
Michigan season averages on defense:
Turnovers Forced- 12.1, Blocks- 2.8, Steals- 6.2

Projected Starters:

F Glenn Robinson III FR: Rated a five-star recruit and the No. 18 player in the nation, GRIII is an athletic wing whose best traits are attacking the basket on offense and the glass on defense. He adds versatility to Beilein’s lineup, and he can slide over to the power forward spot when the Wolverines want to get quicker and more up-tempo. He has 64 points and 31 rebounds in the NCAA tourney.

F Mitch McGary FR: He may be the best recruit in Beilein’s tenure at Michigan. ESPN rated him a four-star prospect, the No. 5 power forward and the No. 27 player in the class of 2012. He’s a do-whatever-it-takes player who isn’t afraid to mix it up or dive after a loose ball. Defensively, he can use his wide-bodied frame to box out and keep opponents from the lane while being an effective shot-alterer. His offensive strengths now are as a left-handed, back-to-the-bucket scorer. He has 80 points and 58 rebounds in the NCAA tourney.

G Tim Hardaway Jr. JR: He is a strong rebounder from the guard spot and possesses a similar ability as Burke in slashing to the basket, albeit with not as quick a first step or as good of ball-handling skills. He loves to jack up the 3 ball and sometimes takes plays off on defense. He has 67 points and 21 rebounds.

G Trey Burke SOPH: With good height and quickness, Burke can penetrate the lane off the bounce and look to either score or distribute the ball. He’s equally adept at spotting up for a 3-pointer, and he can pull up for midrange jumpers while attacking the basket in the half-court or on the break. He has 69 points, 35 assist and 17 rebounds.

G Nik Stauskas FR: The lengthy Canadian is a top-100 recruit Beilein called “the ultimate gym rat” who plays the game with passion and energy. He’s a big two guard and an outstanding shooter with range, but is also one of those shooters who has the ability to play off the bounce. He really sees the floor as well. He has 49 in the NCAA tourney and went 6-6 from the 3 point line against Florida in the regional final.

Bench Players:

F Jordan Morgan JR: Defensively, he’s more adept at keeping opposing bigs from moving toward the basket than he is at altering their shots. Morgan continued to develop around the rim as a scorer, attacking the bucket for dunks or layups. He is not very affective in the short to midrange game. He has 5 points and 8 rebounds in the NCAA tourney.

F Jon Horford SOPH: He is former Florida player Al Horford’s brother. Like his brother Al when he played for Florida, Jon Horford oozes potential between his lean, long frame and ability to get off the floor quickly. It translates to shot blocking, rebounding and pass deflections. He has 12 points and 11 rebounds in the NCAA tourney.

G Spike Albrecht FR: He has a very high basketball IQ and is a true point guard whose best attributes are guiding an offense and setting up his teammates. He has 19 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assist in the NCAA tourney.

G Caris LeVert FR: In Levert, the Wolverines get a lithe but versatile player who can play any of the three guard spots. He had his most productive game of the NCAA tourney against Syracuse where he scored 8 points, had 4 rebounds and 2 assist.

The national championship game is now set and it will feature the nations best offense versus the nations best defense according to Kenpom. But I feel like this game is more about Louisville’s multidimensional attack against a Michigan team that relies heavily on one aspect of their game to be successful. And I think if the Cards can get them to act their age whether that means; beating up the Wolverines’ four-guard lineup on the backboards, making Robinson III disappear, or getting one of the young Michigan stars into foul trouble they will be cutting down the nets.

For whatever reason four of the Cards most important players took the night off in the game against Wichita State. I think they were just a victim of those high emotions and with that survive and advance game out of the way these guys will be on a mission Monday night. I think this is a very good Michigan team but the 2012-13 Louisville Cardinals are the team of destiny and they are not going to be denied. I’ve been waiting 27 years to watch my favorite team climb those ladders and will finally get to see it on Monday night. Cards are gonna get it done.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 80 Michigan 73

HAN-SHOCKED!

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Winning the College Basketball National Title is the hardest trophy to win in all of sports. Tonight just further proved that point as the 9th seeded Wichita State Shockers took our #1 overall seed Louisville Cardinals to the very end before the Cards finally prevailed 72-68. The Cards have now won 15 straight games and will finally get a chance to play for a national championship for the first time in 27 years. I’m 40 years old and the last time I seen a Louisville team in the title game I was laying in my parents living room floor watching that 86 group on an old Zenith console. Remember those? This time I’ll see it live in Atlanta and I can’t wait.

Up until tonight Louisville had navigated its rocky road with ease, first handling North Carolina A & T, then destroying Colorado State, followed by a comfortable eight-point win over Oregon and, lastly, a punishing second-half spurt to pull away from Duke in an Elite Eight clash. Aside from Duke hanging tough through the first 20 minutes our Cards hadn’t had much of a challenge. But tonight they got all they wanted from the Shockers and with 13 minutes left were down by 12 points. But just like they had done through this entire tourney and season they turned up the defense and were able to pull it out. Through this tourney the Cardinals had forced turnovers on 27.5 percent of opponents’ possessions. Tonight the Shockers took very good care of the ball up until about 13 minutes left in the game. That’s when Louisville erased a 12-point deficit and outscored Wichita State by 16 points. The Cardinals were able to speed up Wichita State during this stretch forcing them into seven turnovers in the final seven minutes after they’d gone more than 26 minutes without one. The Cards had 26 deflections Saturday, its fewest in the 2013 Men’s Basketball Championship. The Cardinals entered the Final Four averaging 45.0 deflections per game in the tournament. Louisville had 17 of its 26 deflections in the second half.

The MVP of the night was the bearded wonder Luke Hancock. If you have been reading my stuff all season then you know that I had pegged Hancock as one of my x-factors for a national title run. Tonight Luke stepped up his game and truly was the x-factor coming off the bench scoring 20 points including 14 in the second half, to help the Cards rally from a dozen-point deficit. He also had 4 rebounds, 2 assist and 2 steals in his standout performance. He had averaged 6.8 points over his previous four NCAA tournament games. The Cardinals were more efficient tonight with Hancock on the court, averaging 1.34 points per possession in the 31 minutes he played. He has become a very important part of this Cardinal machine and we will need him to continue to play like this on Monday night.

It was great to see Chane have a good game tonight. He had really been in a slump during the NCAA tournament but tonight he broke out of that slup just in time and this team needed it in the worst way tonight. He was very close to a double-double with 10 points and 9 rebounds and was key in the Cardinals come back. I think he is the kind of guy that loves the big spotlight and this is the second time that he has stepped up in the tournament when the Cards chances were on the line. He came up big in that regional final game last year. Ware on Behanan: “Bout time he played.” Behanan response: “He’s probably right.”

Tonight Russ, Peyton, Gorgui and Wayne had their worst games of the season. And yes Russ led the team in scoring with 21 points but he was 5 of 12 from the free throw line and that’s unheard of from him. Gorgui and Wayne were scoreless tonight and Peyton had 7 points but was still very ineffective on the offensive end of the floor. It was the bench that came through tonight and the Cards would have been on a flight home right now if it had not been for those guys stepping up. The above mentioned Luke Hancock along with Montrezl, Stephan and Tim scored 34 of the Cardinals final 72 points and accounted for 13 of the teams 32 rebounds.

Got to give kudos to Tim Henderson for making me look like I know what I’m talking about. In my post game last week I mentioned how I had full confidence that this kid could step in and get the job done in Kevin’s absence. Henderson said after the game: “When Kevin went down, he told me, ‘I believe in you. You can step up. I’ve seen you in practice. I’ve seen you do this.” Tonight he hit two monster 3 point shots that sparked the Louisville comeback. Up until those two shots he had 16 points this season. I was really impressed watching Tim play against the starting unit in the Red & White games back in November. You could tell that he was a hard working kid and that he is the type of guy that doesn’t back down from a challenge. And just like Rick Pitino mentioned tonight in his press conference: “Tim goes against Russ everyday in practice.” I’m glad this kid got his chance to step up on this the biggest stage in college sports. Guys like Tim work their butts off all year just like the rest of these guys do and they very often get a chance to play let alone in a huge game like tonight. I’m sure he will be telling his grand kids about those 2 big three point shots some day.

Coach Pitino: “The players said they weren’t surprised about him making those back to back threes. They’re being very kind. I was shocked.”

Well Cardinal fans we have reached the final stop on this final four journey. Without a doubt our Cardinals are the best team in the country and they must go out on Monday night and prove it one last time. I think tonight was just the kind of game they needed and in my opinion teams need games like this in tournament if they are going to become National Champions. It’s these survive and advance moments that define a title run. The Michigan Wolverines are the only thing standing in the way of one of the greatest moments in Louisville’s basketball history. NO SLEEP TIL ATLANTA BABY!

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