March Madness: The Elite 8 Beak Breakdown Duke

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The last time these teams played it was a “Battle for Atlantis” but on Sunday it will be a battle to see who goes to Atlanta. The game between these teams in November was one of the most anticipated of the pre-season and watching that game most thought the next time these teams played that it would be for the national title. It’s not the national championship Sunday evening but it will have that type of atmosphere as these great teams play for the regional title. Duke beat the Cards in that early game in the Bahamas 76-71. The Louisville program has been to the elite 8 four times in the last six years. This is the 12th elite 8 in school history. This will be the first meeting between Rick Pitino and Mike Krzyzewski since the classic 1992 battle.

When your team is getting ready to play the Duke Blue Devils one thing comes to mind. 
Coach Mike Krzyzewski. He is the winningest coach in college basketball history and has a track record that is unmatched. We are talking 2 Olympic gold medals, a World Championship, over 900 wins and four NCAA titles folks. His record in the NCAA Tournament is 79-24. This is obviously a slight edge that Duke has in every contest. The Devils also return four starters and six key players from a year ago. This includes five starters who all averaged double figures this season. Offense is not a problem for this team. They boast five regular three-point shooters who broke 35 percent or better this season, three guys who shot better than 40 percent on twos, and two players who have picked up over 100 points from the free throw line. This team will also take very good care of the ball as they commit very few turnovers. They don’t rush their offense and usually get good shots with most of their possessions. The Blue Devils have excellent balance, with all five starters averaging in double figures. They space the court and let their skilled starting five go to town in Coach K’s simple but lethal plan.
The Devils are very talented folks, but do have some question marks. Their group is a very capable bunch but sometimes lack the one player who will step up and take over a game if need be. Two point defense has often been a problem as well. They have especially had trouble with teams that have guards who can penetrate the lane. Duke starts three guards, so rebounding can also be a problem at times. They will play 7 guys so their stamina might come into question having to face a Louisville team that goes 9 deep and will press the whole game.

Kenpom:
ADJ Efficiency- Offense 119.5 Rank 4
ADJ Efficiency- Defense 89.5 Rank 17
Kenpom Overall Rank: 4

Their National Statistics:
-POINTS PER GAME
78.3
6th
OVERALL
-REBOUNDS PER GAME
33.8
213th
OVERALL
-ASSISTS PER GAME
14.7
57th
OVERALL
-FIELD GOAL PCT
.476
17th
OVERALL

Duke’s season averages on offense:
3pt-49.3%, 2pt-47.5%, FT-73.8%
Duke’s season averages on defense:
Turnovers Forced- 14.1, Blocks- 3.8, Steals- 6.5

Projected Starters:

C Mason Plumlee SR: He rebounds well at both ends of the floor, and is one of the best-passing big men in the league. He is also a good defender in the lane and blocks a lot of shots. He has 57 points and 27 rebounds in the NCAA tourney.

F Ryan Kelly SR: He can truly be a dangerous offensive weapon. This guy has and is always capable of shooting over 50% from the 3 point line in a game. He is also another good defender in the lane and is a capable shot blocker. He has 26 points and 7 blocked shots in the NCAA tourney.

G Rasheed Sulaimon FR: He is Duke’s top-rated recruit. He is a player that takes pride in his defense and is a good three point shooter. He is a really good rebounder for a guard and can be a big x-factor for this team if he has his game. He has 60 points and 17 rebounds in the NCAA tourney.

G Seth Curry SR: Since coach K started using him more as a scorer and less as the guy running the offense Curry has been the most consistent player on the team. Whenever they need a big shot he is usually the guy that takes it. He can be lethal from deep. He has 87 points in the NCAA tourney.

G Quinn Cook Soph: He is a great penetrating guard who can find the open man. He is a great assist guy who has very few turnovers. He is also a very good defender up front for the Blue Devils. He is the player that really hurt the Cards the most the last time these teams played. He has 20 points and 21 assist in the NCAA tourney.

Bench players:

G Tyler Thornton JR: He isn’t a great playmaker, but he takes care of the ball Isn’t a great on-the-ball defender, but may be the toughest, most versatile defensive player. He has 21 points and 6 steals in the NCAA tourney.

F Josh Hairston JR: The Duke coaches like the energy he brings to the court and the fact that he’s a vocal defender. He has 2 points and 7 rebounds in the NCAA tourney.

This will be the first time the Cards have played Duke in the tournament since the 1986 NCAA Championship Game. Pervis Ellison, Milt Wagner, Johnny Dawkins and Jay Bilas were the stars of the show the last time around. Gorgui Dieng, Russ Smith, Seth Curry and Mason Plumlee will play those roles Sunday and will more than likely be the players that determine the outcome in this one. The battle in the paint between Plumlee and Dieng features two of college basketball’s premier big men going head-to-head. With Gorgui being the more physical player and Mason being the more skilled player. Plumlee is having the better NCAA but I’m expecting Gorgui to find his mojo again and step up to the challenge Sunday defensively. Duke struggles with guys that get out well in transition. Russ is the best in the NCAA at that.

All eyes will also be on the battle between two Hall of Fame coaches Sunday as well. Rick Pitino and Mike Krzyzewski are master teachers who really develop their players from an individual standpoint. From start to finish, they emphasize roles and responsibilities. They both do a great job at connecting with their players coaching with high intensity always instructional rather than critical. When coach Pitino last faced Krzyzewski in 1992 it was his team who were playing as the underdogs. Sunday the role will be reversed. It’s gonna be fun watching these masterminds of the game go at it.

Duke has some great players but Louisville has them to and more of them. I think the depth of our Cards will play a huge role in the outcome of this one. Duke typically plays 6 guys and at most 7. While Louisville could have 10 guys see action. And this is a big deal when a team is playing the quick turnaround of the NCAA tournament. I look for our Cards to play that tough man-to-man from start to finish in this one. To beat the Devils, an opponent must exploit their lack of frontcourt speed, doggedly defend the 3-point line and hold its own on the glass. It’s quite a daunting to-do list but this group of Cards will be up for the challenge. And while this one stays close throughout Duke’s legs will eventually give out allowing our Cards to win a close one. I can’t hardly wait it’s gonna be great.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 78 Duke 73

Cards take Oregon’s best shot but didn’t “Quack”

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It was a battle of the birds tonight in Indianapolis and the Oregon Ducks proved that they were a very formidable foe. They never laid down and fought for the entire forty minutes. But our Cards proved that they could bend without breaking as they won the game 77-69. They have now won 13 games in a row and will now be heading to their 13th elite eight in school history. Coach Pitino is now 11-0 in Sweet 16 games.

This team has proven that they can win games by dominating teams with their suffocating defense but tonight they proved that when that defense is a little off they can also win with some solid offense. On a night where the Louisville defense could only force Oregon into 12 turnovers and could only get 7 steals they scored over 40 points in the paint and dominated in the transition game getting to the rim on most of their possessions. They got so many baskets from close range that they shot 53.8% from the field. The Cards would also get to the rim enough that it caused the Ducks to get into foul trouble. The Cards weren’t as impressive from the free-throw line tonight only hitting 17 for 26 at 65.4% but it did help in a game where it took points to win.

I tweeted out earlier that Russ Smith is becoming legendary. Some think he is already there and you could make the case no doubt. It is my opinion though that you have to win the big one to become truly legendary. But the Cardinals are now only 3 games away and Russ Smith is the biggest reason why. This kid is a scoring machine and on the grand stage he has took his scoring ability to the next level. Tonight with a very bad cold he had 31 points and now has 81 points in the NCAA tournament. I don’t know if Russ can keep topping himself but I’m looking forward to him trying.

Rick Pitino: “Russ Smith has had a year and a half like no other player I have ever coached.”

We all know that a big reason we are in the elite 8 is because of Russ but the play of Kevin Ware hasn’t hurt. He continues to get better and better and really has started to play the game he’s capable of. He is one of the more athletic guys on this team and we are gonna need him to keep it going to win three more games. He was the second leading scorer tonight with 11 points.

Peyton is in the early stages of strep throat and it showed tonight in his most underwhelming performance of the season. The guy still came out and gutted through it so kudos to him. Hope he hits the bed until Sunday because we are gonna need his leadership. Wayne and Chane combined for 7 boards and 12 points. And that’s decent production especially against the speed and versatility of the Oregon players. I thought Gorgui also did a great job with their quality bigs. He had some nice offensive possessions scoring 10 points and looked good on defense with 4 blocked shots. He also had 9 of the Cards 32 rebounds.

Hancock and Harrell came off the bench and did what they do. Luke provided some offense scoring 7 points and Montrezl provided some big time rebounding grabbing 7 boards.

Our Cards have only trailed for a little over four minutes during the entire NCAA tournament but now it has reached the level of survive and advance. The Cards took Oregon’s best shot tonight and they got within six points late in the game before our guys finally shut the door for good. The Ducks also outscored the Cards tonight in the second half 38 to 32. Most of our team is battling through illness and it was great to see them respond the way that they did. I’m glad they had a game like this because on Sunday they are gonna face a team just as capable of winning a national championship as they are. Three more to go Cards fans buckle up “no sleep till Atlanta baby!”

Coach Pitino: “We just had to get our guys to the finish line tonight. Now, we can get some rest and some medication and we’ll be fine.”

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March Madness: The Sweet 16 Beak Breakdown Oregon

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On Friday night our Cards will be in Indianapolis to face the Oregon Ducks in the Sweet 16. The Cards will be looking to win their 13th straight game in what will be their 25th appearance in the Sweet 16. Coach Pitino is unbeaten in ten Sweet 16 appearances, his average winning margin is 19.8 points. At Louisville that average margin has been 21.3 points. Louisville is just 1-2 all-time versus Oregon. The Cards last beat the Ducks December 20, 1954. Nearly 59 years ago. The last two times these teams have played it hasn’t been pretty for Louisville. The Ducks blew out the Cards 88-65 in Denny Crum’s final season and 90-63 in Pitino’s First Season.

Our last opponent Colorado State was a team laced with senior leadership and veteran players. But this Dana Altman Oregon team is lead by Six freshmen, two JUCO transfers and a redshirt freshman. Many thought this would equal unavoidable headaches for Altman and his staff this season with a reliance on so much youth but it offered satisfaction and surprise as the Ducks somehow bonded together quickly, and have had a very good run. This young Oregon team really spurred their success on the defensive side of the floor. The Ducks use athleticism and quickness to turn their opponents over and block shots at a high rate. They turn opposing teams over 22.3 percent of possessions good for 56th in the nation, and block shots on the interior 6.9 percent of possessions good for 15th in the country. Their ability to generate possessions via steals and blocked shots is a staple of their defense. On offense they like to pound the ball inside to their bigs. They love to dominate the paint area and 57 percent of their points come on 2-point shots. This is a team that shoots well from inside the arc and poorly from behind it. They also score a large percentage of their points from the free throw line. This young group of Ducks do get careless with the ball turning it over an average of 17 times in their last three games and their 21.6 percent turnover figure makes them the 263rd worst team in the nation in coughing up the basketball.

Kenpom:
ADJ Efficiency- Offense 105.2 Rank 99
ADJ Efficiency- Defense 87.5 Rank 9
Kenpom Overall Rank: 31

Their National Statistics:
-POINTS PER GAME
71.7
69th
OVERALL
-REBOUNDS PER GAME
37.4
52nd
OVERALL
-ASSISTS PER GAME
13.0
151st
OVERALL
-FIELD GOAL PCT
.447
97th
OVERALL

Colorado State season averages on offense:
3pt-31.3%, 2pt-44.8%, FT-70.7%
Colorado State season averages on defense:
Turnovers Forced- 15.4, Blocks- 4, Steals- 9

Projected Starters:

C Tony Woods SR: He serves as the defensive anchor of the group swatting away 40 shots this season. He isn’t that great on the defensive glass. Considered a legit NBA prospect when he started out at Wake Forest, Woods simply hasn’t progressed enough on offense to justify the hype. He finishes decently but rarely creates his own shot.

F E.J. Singler SR: The versatile senior can play anywhere from shooting guard to power forward, and there’s an intangible sense of leadership and determination in the Oregon native that has rubbed off on the rest of his team. He shot 67% against St Louis and has scored 22 points in the NCAA. He is the Ducks best player.

F Arsalan Kazemi SR The first Iranian-born player in Division I men’s college hoops Since transferring from Rice University last year, Kazemi has become a popular and important member of a surging Ducks basketball team. He is a rebounding machine and has 33 rebounds in his last two NCAA games. He has also scored 19 points.

G Damyean Dotson FR: He was voted Houston’s player of the year last season. He is a hard nosed player and can be a prolific scorer. He has scored 40 points in the two NCAA games.

G Johnathan Loyd JR: The 5-8 guard from Las Vegas has yet to reach expectations but is a solid ball-handler. Loyd is the team’s best playmaker, but does struggle to make shots. While obviously limited by his height on defense, Loyd does generate plenty of steals. He has 14 points and 9 assist in their two NCAA games.

Bench Players:

F Carlos Emory SR: A very athletic wing improved as the season continued and has much more potential. He is a good shooter. He shot 60% from the field in the last game and has scored 26 points. He also goes after the boards with 13 in the last two games.

G Dominic Artis FR: ESPN rated Artis a four-star recruit and the No. 8 point guard in the 2012 class. While Artis is actually listed at 5-11 by some recruiting websites, he has long arms, good quickness and an ability to change gears. He’s also a savvy gym rat who has picked up the Ducks’ offense quickly. He has scored 13 points in the NCAA.

C Waverly Austin JR: The Ducks picked up a late commitment from Austin, a junior college transfer, after he was unable to attain eligibility at South Florida before school started. Rated the No. 5 transfer in the country by Jucorecruiting.com, He gives the Ducks size when Woods is on the bench. He has 6 rebounds in their NCAA games.

This is another one of those games that is going to take a team effort on the boards. This Oregon team really goes after it on the glass but the Cards just out rebounded the best rebounding team in the tournament in Colorado State so this doesn’t concern me. They are going to go right at Gorgui and Chane with their bigs. This will be the first time in the tournament that our front-court will really be challenged. I think our guys are the more athletic group but Chane might have problems with their length. But no fear as that will just require more minutes out of our freshman sensation Montrezl Harrell. If our front-court does a good job guarding their post players straight up it will force them into a jump shooting team and with only two good shooters on their team this will lead to a lot of fast shots by the Ducks and transition offense for the Cards. Our back-court is going to have a field day with this high turnover team. Also where they go 6 deep before falling off we go 9 deep without falling off so the benches will come into play. There are no easy ones at this point in the season but this one is very winnable if the Cards take care of their business.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 78 Oregon 61

Happy Anniversary “Dream Game”

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The 1983 match-up between Louisville and UK was ranked as one of the top 75 moments of the NCAA tournament by ESPN but for folks of the state of Kentucky it was a defining moment that would ignite a feud that would become one of the greatest rivalries in all of college sports. Today is the 30th anniversary of that moment in 1983 and the rivalry that started that day is as passionate as it ever was.

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When you grow up in the state of Kentucky and get old enough to start watching sports it becomes time to make a decision. Are you going to cheer for the Blue or the Red. Sometimes family can influence this decision but in some cases it just becomes a matter of choice. I started watching and becoming interested in basketball when I was 13 years old. By this time Louisville had become one of the dominate teams of the 80’s and had established itself as a national power house. I grew up in the rural town of Owenton, Kentucky and lucky for me the owner of the local drug store was a Louisville Alumni and sold Louisville merchandise. Maybe this access to the merchandise or the fact that Louisville was doing so well influenced my decision. But in 1985 I became a Louisville Cardinal fan.

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I can’t say that for the last 27 years I have enjoyed all the constant back and forth between me and my friends that cheer for UK. But rivalries are what define sports. Every competition needs a great rivalry and on this day 30 years ago one was born in the state of Kentucky that will live on for many generations to come.

Happy anniversary to the game that sparked one of the greatest rivalries in all of sports. “The Battle of The Bluegrass”

CARDS ROMP RAMS IN A RED RUPP ARENA

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This is the time of year when the name on the jersey doesn’t mean anything when the ball is tipped at center court. This is the time of year when you gotta bring your game and not just your name if you want to survive and advance to the next round. Today the fans turned out in force to represent the Louisville name and the team brought their game as they overwhelmed a scrappy Colorado St team beating them 82-56 in Rupp Arena to advance to the Sweet 16. The Cardinals have now won twelve straight games and this will be the 25th time that they have advanced to the Sweet 16. Coach Pitino is unbeaten in 10 Sweet 16 appearances, his average winning margin is 19.8 points. At Louisville that average margin has been 21.3.

Coach Rick Pitino: “We can play much better,””This is the best we have played so far at both ends of the floor. But we can definitely get better and improve.”

This group of Cardinals have made their name on defense this season. It has been the foundation from which this team thrives. They have been considered the best defensive team in the country all season including having the lowest adj efficiency in the history of Kenpom’s system. To think this defensive could get any better is crazy but it has. If fact every game they play the defense just keeps getting better. This Louisville team has now recorded more steals than their opponent for 15 consecutive games and have 31 steals so far in the the NCAA tournament. Today they had 11 steals with 5 players that had 2 each. The Cardinals defense also forced the Rams into 19 turnovers. They have forced 32 turnovers in the last two games. In a game where they faced the number one rebounding team in the country the Cards also won that battle 25 to 22 and rebounded 9 of their 24 missed shots for 37.5%. It was a great team effort on the boards as seven players would get three or more. I knew that our front-court would be hard for the Rams to handle due to the Cardinals physical style of play and they completely dominated them in the paint 42 to 14. With the defense being so great it is easy to overlook a offense that also keeps getting better and better. The Cards have become much more efficient on the offensive end of the floor and have been been taking better shots. They shot and impressive 56.4% from the floor tonight and 55.6% from the three. And this team has been clutch from the charity stripe. Tonight they shot 83.3%

Colorado State coach Larry Eustachy: “I don’t want to put the pressure on Rick and his guys, but they’re special,””They need a little luck like everybody does to win it all, but that’s as impressive team as I’ve been against, certainly.”

Russ Smith has had a great start to the NCAA tournament. He has performed so well in Rupp Arena over the past couple of day that Louisville fans renamed the place Russ Arena. He had a awesome stat line tonight with 27 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assist and 2 steals. Rick Pitino was talking about Russ after the game and said that he has really grown up over the season. He said that the old Russ would have tried to get 50 tonight. He really has come a long way since November. Not only is he the best player on this Louisville team but he has become one of the best players in the country. And is one of the most effective players left in the NCAA tournament. Russ had 50 points, 5 assist and 10 steals in the first two games of the NCAA tourney.

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Our fearless leader of this team Peyton Siva had another very effective game. He did a great job at driving into the lane to score and finding the open man. He had one highlight reel play with a give and go alley oop play with Montrezl Harrell. You can see that in the pictures below. He had 10 points, 5 assist and 2 steals tonight and did a very good job at controlling the pace of the game for the Cards. He had 13 assist and 6 steals in the first two games of the NCAA tourney.

Gorgui, Wayne and Chane had very solid nights for the Cards. Their athleticism, size and agility was really a lot for the Colorado State front-court to to handle and when they are playing well will be a lot for any team to handle. Between these three guys they accounted for 10 rebounds and 23 points. These guys are going to be very important as we move further down the line. An it appears that they are up for the challenge.

Another great night for the Louisville bench as they outscore the Rams bench 22 to 16. Montrezl lead the way in bench scoring with 11 points and 4 rebounds. This kid has become a very good source of energy for this team. When he gets into the game it seems like the level of intensity goes through the roof. He is one of those players that just has the type of motor that never stops. We also got very good minutes from Stephan, Luke and Kevin. These guys accounted for 11 points, 5 steals and 5 rebounds. This bench is a big reason for the current twelve game winning streak and will a big reason I think we cut down the nets here in a few weeks.

There were 20,600 folks in Rupp Arena tonight and probably 19,000 of them were Louisville fans. Earlier in the week I called on the Cardinal Nation to turn Rupp red and you answered that call. It was a really great environment and was awesome to see the building that is usually blue be red. This team now moves to the next round in Indianapolis at Lucas Oil Stadium to face the Pac 12 Oregon Ducks in the Sweet 16. 2 games down and 4 more to go Cardinal fans. Lets continue to get out there and support these guys all the way. Go Cards!

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March Madness: The Third Round Beak Breakdown Colorado St

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The Cards just completely overwhelmed their first opponent in the NCAA tournament Thursday night in Rupp Arena. The match-up was just the perfect fit for the Cards up and down style of play. On Saturday the competition starts to get a little tougher as they will face the 8 seeded Colorado St Rams. They beat Missouri 84-72 to advance to the round of 32. The Rams had a great season with a 25-7 record and a second place finish in the Mountain West conference. They made their way to a 22nd ranking and it was the first time this team had been ranked since 1954. This is the second straight NCAA tournament appearance by the Rams, which hasn’t happened since the mid 1960s.

Thanks to the fine work of former coach Tim Miles, who parlayed it into the top job at Nebraska, Larry Eustachy took over a Colorado State program that was very good. The Rams return three starters and five seniors. Eustachy previous head-coaching jobs were at Southern Miss, Iowa State, Utah State and Idaho. He says this is the best job he’s ever had. They have a pretty good offensive and do a great job of spreading the court to execute their inside out game. They have some solid shooters and players that use good fundamentals. They take very good care of the ball. Their defense is not great but they are a scrappy bunch and are very active on that end of the floor. They are the best rebounding team in the country with a +12 average margin. They do struggle with their perimeter defense allowing opponents to shoot well from the 3 point shot. They rank 157th in that category.

Kenpom:
ADJ Efficiency- Offense 117.5 Rank 7
ADJ Efficience- Defense 96.7 Rank 96
Kenpom Overall Rank: 24

Their National Statistics:
-POINTS PER GAME
73.1
50th
OVERALL
-REBOUNDS PER GAME
40.4
4th
OVERALL
-ASSISTS PER GAME
13.1
145th
OVERALL
-FIELD GOAL PCT
.448
94th
OVERALL

Colorado State season averages on offense:
3pt-33.7%, 2pt-44.8%, FT-71.3%
Colorado State season averages on defense:
Turnovers Forced- 17, Blocks- 2, Steals- 5

Projected Starters:

F/C Colton Iverson SR: He started his career at Minnesota. He is the teams leading scorer with 14.6 points a game. He is a great rebounder and will alter some shots. He had 13 blocks in their win against Missouri. This guy is the tallest and best player on this team.

F Pierce Hornung SR: Any coach in the Mountain West will say a big factor in the Rams’ recent success is due to the play of this 6-5 senior. He is considered the Rams’ glue guy, and despite his lack of size, he leads the team in rebounding with 9.2 per game.

F Greg Smith SR: He is solid, and what he lacks in height at 6-6 he makes up for with speed and athleticism. He averages 11.3 points a game.

G Wes Eikmeier SR: An Iowa State transfer who is a three-year starter, was a first-team All-Mountain West selection. He is one of this teams better shooters. He averages 12.5 points a game.

G Dorian Green SR: This guy has been a starter for his entire career and is the 19th player in school history to score more than 1,000 points. He is very good on both ends of the floor. He averages 13.1 points a game.

Key Reserves:

G Daniel Bejarano SOPH: Sat out last season after transferring from Arizona, where he played sparingly as a freshman. He was ranked as the 40th-best high school prospect in the nation by one recruiting analyst, and the 13th-best shooting guard in the country by another. Averages 6.1 points a game.

G Jon Octeus SOPH: Has the coolest name in the NCAA tournament. He provides some good shooting off the bench. He averages 43% from the field. He scored 12 points against Missouri.

F Gerson Santo JR: Is another reliable big guy for this team who will come in and provide quality minutes. He had 3 rebounds and 4 points against Missouri.

In the NCAA tournament you have to bring your game and not rely on your name. That statement will never be more true than when our Cards face the Rams on Saturday. These guys won’t care about the fact that they are playing the number one overall seed in the NCAA tournament. In fact it will probably encourage them to play harder. This will be the most veteran squad the Cards have played all year and one of the most inspired basketball teams they have played all season. We will really need our perimeter shooters to take advantage of the Rams poor perimeter defense. Hopefully Hancock and Blackshear can get it going from deep. Kevin Ware and Russ Smith should also be able to get open looks from the three. Another advantage our Cards will have is their length and athleticism. Their tallest player is 6-10 and they are a undersized team. They also don’t have that much versatility. Gorgui and Chane should be able to bully their way inside and will need to be aggressive on the glass. This is also a game where Stephan Van Treese will be good to have. It’s funny but a lot of their guys are blue collar players like SVT. Peyton’s speed will also be a huge advantage. He should have no problem getting into the lane and the free-throw line.

The NCAA tournament gets real on Saturday folks. This Colorado group of Seniors are in it to win it. And they have a great head man leading their charge. I don’t think you’ll see a cake walk here but we will survive and advance in this one.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 69 Colorado St 57

ONE DOWN, FIVE TO GO

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We have entered into the greatest time of the year for the college basketball fan. The NCAA is one of the purest forms of sports and it is always humbling and refreshing to see amateur athletes giving it their all on this grand stage. This is the time of year that no matter how big or small the school is every athlete gives it their all for the name on the front of the jersey. March Madness has started Cards fans and the journey to Atlanta for the Cardinals is now one game shorter after they took care of A&T tonight in Rupp Arena 79-48.

The Cards got to start off this tournament as the number one overall seed. A big part of their success this season and the reason they were able to win enough to reach that number one overall seed is because of their great defensive efforts. Tonight that defense was clicking on all cylinders. At times it was just downright relentless forcing A&T into 25 turnovers and getting 20 steals. Coach Pitino said after the game during his press conference that the Cards had 67 deflections. That is the highest total of the year. This defense just keeps getting better and better. Another thing that keeps improving with every game is the front-court production. Tonight the Cards scored over 40 points and dominated in the paint. They also dominated the offensive glass 12 to 4. Stephan Van Treese with another great rebounding night had 4 of those. Between Chane, Wayne, Montrezl and Gorgui they scored 36 of the Cards 79 points. Was great to see Wayne with a little more fire in his belly tonight. He loves the tournament. And if we can count on him to produce for the next 5 games be afraid rest of the field, be very afraid.

Our back-court duo of Russ and Peyton were very solid tonight. Russ had a great stat line of 23 points, 7 steals and 3 assist. He was the most active player on the floor offensively. Peyton just went about his business and really knows how to dominate a game very quietly. He just has those intangibles that are so valuable to this team. He had 5 steals to go along with 8 assist and really was solid.

One game down Cards fans and 5 more to go. We will now face the winner of the 8 seed Missouri vs 9 seed Colorado St match-up on Saturday. We have already faced Missouri earlier this season in the “Battle 4 Atlantis” tournament where the Cards beat the Tigers 84-61. I will have the break down of our next opponent once we find out who that will be.

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March Madness: The First Round Beak Breakdown A&T

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The Brackets are out and let the madness begin. Our Cardinals got the number 1 overall seed in the Midwest but many believe that we will have the toughest road to Atlanta. Especially with an elite 8 match-up with Duke or Michigan St in Indianapolis looming. The bottom line is that in order to be the best you have to beat the best. It appears the Cards will get their chance to do just that. When this thing is over here in a few weeks and Louisville is the last team standing there will be no questions about who the best is.

Our Cardinals learned on selection Sunday that they would play the winner of the play-in game between 16 seed North Carolina A&T and 16 seed Liberty in their first game to kick off March Madness. And tonight A&T beat Liberty in the play-in game 73-72. So our Cards will play A&T in the first session in Lexington at Rupp Arena on Thursday night. The Cardinals will be going into the NCAA tournament as the number one over-all seed. This makes the third number one seed for Louisville and second over-all number one seed. The committee began ranking 1 seeds in 2004. Cards were a number one seed in 83 and a number one over-all seed back in 09.

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North Carolina A&T is a team out of the MEAC conference and they got that conferences automatic bid by winning the conference tournament. They beat Delaware St 84-78 for their first MEAC title since 1995. They did play two Big East teams this season Cincy and Seton Hall. They lost both of those contest. They also played EKU this season and beat the Colonels 78-67. A&T last went to the NCAA tournament 17 years ago, also the last time the team won any sort of MEAC hardware. The Aggies hadn’t finished above the .500 mark in 15 seasons, and after logging their fourth one-and-done exit from the MEAC tournament in a five-year span, A&T terminated Jerry Eaves with one year left on his contract and brought in former South Carolina State and Tennessee State head coach Cy Alexander to replace Eaves. A&T will likely be an up-tempo team under Alexander, as his past squads have often finished near the top of D-I in pace. He runs an aggressive man-to-man defense that results in a high number of steals, but an even higher number of easy looks for the opposition. Expect the Aggies to work at a more deliberate pace running an offense that uses a variety of sets and emphasizes an inside-out philosophy. Five seniors and a junior return, so the Aggies will be nothing if not experienced.

Kenpom:
ADJ Efficiency- Offense 89.6 Rank 317
ADJ Efficience- Defense 95.3 Rank 81
Kenpom Overall Rank: 226

Their National Statistics:
-POINTS PER GAME
62.2
290th
OVERALL
-REBOUNDS PER GAME
35.4
131st
OVERALL
-ASSISTS PER GAME
11.1
293rd
OVERALL
-FIELD GOAL PCT
.399
317th
OVERALL

North Carolina A&T’s season averages on offense:
FG%-39.9%, 3PT-29.9%, FT-65.8%
North Carolina A&T’s season averages on defense:
Rebounds-35pg, Steals-7, Blocks-5

Projected Starters:

F Adrian Powell: He is a 6-6 senior swingman who is their top performer averaging 12.5 points per game and 5 rebounds. He is a solid shooter from anywhere on the court, and may be taking a lot of the catch- and-shoot looks.

F Austin Witter: This guy is also one of their top returning senior performers leading the team in rebounds at 7.1 per game and assist at 2.1 per game. Witter is versatile enough to play either forward spot, as well as center.

G Jean Louisme: Is another senior with a lot of experience and can shoot the deep ball. He averages 9.4 points and 3.4 rebounds per game.

F Bruce Beckford: He is a freshman from one of the most prestigious high school programs in the country, Montrose Christian Academy. And came to A&T with a college body, so he gives the Aggies a physical presence in the paint. Averages 7.9 points per game and 4.4 rebounds.

G Lamont Middleton: A junior that has a scorer’s mentality. Likes to get to the rim and finish. Is an excellent rebounder for a guard. Averages 12.4 points per game and 4.1 rebounds.

Key reserves:

F DaMetrius Upchurch: A senior who is one of only two Aggies to top 100 with his offensive rating, is a low-post player with solid offensive rebounding abilities. Averages 4.5 points a game and 3.6 rebounds.

G Jeremy Underwood: A junior that has tremendous speed and excellent court vision. Averages 6.1 points per game and 1.6 rebounds.

I don’t think our Cards will have too much trouble from A&T and I don’t think you’ll see any chance of a 16 over a 1 here. The Cards front-court will be way too talented and advance for this team to defend. Gorgui and Chane should have a field day in the opening game and the new post season beast Montrezl Harrell will have these guys hanging off his arms. Our dynamic duo in the back-court will be licking their chops about this match-up. This game will be like a tennis match with the action going up and down the court. This is a match-up that will be perfect for the Cardinals style of play.

The real challenge will start in the second round on Saturday when the Cards will play the winner of the 8 seed Colorado St vs 9 seed Missouri game. I will have the breakdown of the winner of this game on Friday.

Cardinal Curtain Call

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It was a Cardinal curtain call tonight as Louisville closes out the Big East in fine fashion. Cards showed a lot of heart and determination tonight overcoming a 16 point deficit to beat the Orange 78-61. With the win our Cards are back-to-back Big East champions and have now won ten games straight heading into the NCAA tournament. Also by winning this game they are now predicted to be the number one overall seed when the selections are made tomorrow. Tonight put a bow on a terrific Big East run for the Cardinals. They have been in the conference for 8 seasons and have won 95 games, had 3 second place finishes, 2 first place finishes and finished with the tourney crown three times. They finish the Big East series with Syracuse leading 8 to 4 and now lead the overall series 15 to 7. And the Louisville Cardinals will now be known as the final original Big East champions.

You will not see a comeback like you did tonight very often. In fact tonight set a new record for a comeback in the championship game of the Big East tournament. It takes a special group of young men to do what this team did to win their 2nd and back-to-back Big East crown. Yes Cardinal fans legends are made in New York City and tonight this Cardinal basketball team became legendary.

The Cardinal defense struggled in the first half allowing the Syracuse players to get to the rim and allowed them to shoot uncontested shots. A Louisville team that had 58 deflections on Thursday night didn’t have one in the first half of this game. And Cuse was dominating the glass. The Cards went into their locker room down 13 points and nothing going their way. Rick Pitino said instead of yelling and screaming at them he simply just told them that “it’s up to you to get it done.” And get it done they did. After coming out of the locker room they got down by 16 points in the second half, but from 15:59 to 2:06 in the 2nd half Louisville outscored Syracuse 44-9. During that run they held the Orange to one field goal and 7 free-throws. They would outscore Cuse 56 to 26 in the second half. The Cards defense would end up answering the bell forcing Cuse into 19 turnovers and getting 11 steals. During their remarkable 10 game winning stretch the Louisville defense allowed opponents 54.6 points on 36.4 percent shooting while forcing 17.7 turnovers, including 10.4 steals.

The MVP of this game was Montrezl Harrell. A star was born in MSG tonight as he had a unreal stat line of 20 points, 7 rebounds and 1 blocked shot. And this doesn’t come as a surprise to me. If you have been reading my stuff all season you know that I have sang this guys praises since the red and white scrimmages. The kid just has a motor in him that is something you can’t teach. He put this Cardinal team on his back tonight and this won’t be the last time we see it happen. Wayne might be considered the best recruit of the Rick Pitino era but I think this kid is gonna have something to say about that.

Russ Smith had some trouble on the offensive end of the court due to the length of the Syracuse players but he was still very disruptive on the defensive end and had a very steady game. He has really grown over the season and has learned to play within himself.

Peyton Siva was named the most outstanding player of the Big East tourney for the second straight year. He shares that honor with Patrick Ewing as the only 2 players to ever do that. He was the floor general again tonight for the Cards along with his 11 points he had 8 assist and 4 steals. He set a new record in this tourney with 29 steals. Really glad for him and I don’t think we are done seeing amazing things from him.

Gorgui has had a quiet week in New York but tonight he did a great job when he finally got settled into the game. He started hitting that little 15 footer and was great at distributing the ball against that zone. He made some incredible passes. He would finish with 9 points, 9 boards and 8 assist. He is the best passing big man that Pitino has had since David Padgett.

How about my X-Factors Kevin Ware and Luke Hancock? I said that these guys would be very important to this Cardinal team in the post season and they haven’t let me down. There’s no way this Louisville team would have won the Big East crown without them. They have been great all week and tonight when this team needed a shot or a big play one of these guys stepped up. Tonight it was Kevin that hit two clutch 3 point shots and Luke grabbed 6 big rebounds and got to the free-throw line. These guys are a big part of this teams success and they’re going to be big down the stretch.

We are still waiting for Chane and Wayne to really get it going. They had steady performances tonight but both are capable of much more. This team is great but with them playing up to their true potential it will be epic.

Just a great night to be a Louisville Cardinal fan. Seems like I’ve been saying that a lot this year. This program is really rolling right now and there isn’t anything else I would rather be a part of. Looking forward to getting out to these NCAA games and being a part of this remarkable run. Hopefully the next four weeks are going to be great and if they go the way I hope they do this Cardinal fan will be able to die a happy man. We still got one Cardinal Curtain Call left and in the words of Peyton Siva “no sleep til Atlanta baby.”

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Louisville and Syracuse in the Big East Curtain Call

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I personally don’t think you could ask for a more fitting end to the Big East as we know it to have two great New York rooted coaches going at it on the national stage for the final time in Madison Square Garden. Boeheim was born and raised in Lyons, New York and Pitino, a native of New York City who grew up in the Village of Bayville just miles from where his team will play for their second Big East championship in a row. Both Syracuse and Louisville have been very dominate in the Big East in the last five years and both are very familiar with the bright lights of Madison Square Garden on championship Saturday. Two of the best teams in the league, coached by two of the league’s legendary figures, battling one another to cut down the net for the final time. Syracuse is trying to replicate what the Cards did last year by winning four games in four days to become the Big East champion. Louisville is trying to replicate what Syracuse did in 05/06 and become back-to-back Big East Champions. Syracuse is a five time Big East tourney champ and Louisville has won the prize twice. This will be the third time this season that these teams have faced each other. Cuse won on January 19th 70-68 and Louisville won on March 2nd 58-53. Louisville leads the all-time series against Syracuse 14 to 7 and lead their series in the Big East regular season 7 to 4. These teams have faced each other one other time in the Big East tourney championship game and Louisville won that game 76-66 for their first title.

Syracuse is in the midst of its winningest era ever. The Orange’s recruiting is at an all-time high, with four McDonald’s All-Americans committing in the last three years. And Coach Jim Boeheim is one of the most winning coaches in college basketball at 916 wins. As always, Boeheim has plenty of guys between 6-8 and 6-10 to hold down the back line of the zone, while on the top he has 6-4 Triche and the 6-6 Carter-Williams. And with this much size and agility, the 2-3 is once again a real pain for opposing teams.

Syracuse (26-8, 11-7)
Current RPI-15 Current BPI-7
Kenpom:
ADJ Efficiency- Offense 114.2 Rank 15
ADJ Efficiency- Defense 89.3 Rank 21
Kenpom Overall Rank: 13

National Statistic Rankings:
-POINTS PER GAME
72.1
64th
OVERALL
-REBOUNDS PER GAME
38.7
22nd
OVERALL
-ASSISTS PER GAME
14.8
57th
OVERALL
-FIELD GOAL PCT
.443
115th
OVERALL

Syracuse’s season averages on offense:
2pt-41.5%, 3pt-29.6%, FT-74.3
Syracuse’s season averages on defense:
Forced TO’s-14.1, Steals-7.8, Blocks-5.7

Projected starting line-up for the Orange:

F James Southerland: He rebounds and defends better than he did as an underclassman, but he still remains something of a one-dimensional offensive player. He’s yet to add a reliable drive to the basket to his outside shooting ability. He has scored 53 points, has 11 rebounds and 5 steals in the Big East tourney.

F C.J. Fair: Is a strong and physical player who is a good rebounder and he is a dependable source of effective and low-foul coverage on the back line of the 2-3 zone. He has 35 points and 20 rebounds in the Big East tourney.

G Brandon Triche: Was clutch in the win over the Cards back in January. If he gets hot he can be a very effective scorer. He is a veteran guard and his team will need him to step up big if they are to beat our Cards again on Saturday night. He has scored 42 points, has 7 rebounds and 11 assist on the Big East tourney.

G Michael Carter-Williams: is the player who replaced Scoop Jardine in the Cuse starting line-up. He is a good ball handler with great court vision. He has great size and length for the top of that 2-3 zone. Very effective defender. He has 20 points, 27 assist and 7 steals in the Big East tourney.

F Rakeem Christmas: Is a good rebounder, shot blocker and defender. He is not as effective on the offensive end of the floor. He is also a player prone to foul trouble. He has 6 points and 5 rebounds in the Big East tourney.

Projected Bench Players:

C Baye Keita: Provides energy, defense and rebounding off the bench. He is another big guy on this team who is not as effective on offense and is also a liability at the free throw line. He has 25 points and 13 rebounds in the Big East tourney.

G Trevor Cooney: Will back up Triche at the off guard spot, allowing the senior guard to rest or move to the point to spell Carter-Williams. He’s got size, strength and athleticism. Gives the Orange a 3 point threat when he’s in the game and can out the ball on the floor and make plays. He has 12 points and 5 rebounds in the Big East tourney.

When you put Syracuse in Madison Square Garden in the Big East tourney they turn into a different team and play out of their minds. And I look for them to play their best game of the season tonight. Therefore it will take one of Louisville’s best efforts to beat them. Peyton and Russ are having outstanding performances so far but really believe that we are going to need Gorgui and Chane to get involved tonight for us to have a chance. Luke Hancock has made some clutch threes this week and that trend will also have to continue. Tonight is going to have to be a team effort. Rebounding and defense is what will decide this one. It will be the toughest ball game of the season and a win here will give the Cards some great momentum heading into the NCAA next week. This one is going to be special folks and I look for this curtain call to go right down to the wire.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 70 Syracuse 65