GAME #5 BEAK BREAKDOWN “THE TIGERS”

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– Battle 4 Atlantis round 2

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Our Cards survived a tough first round match-up with Northern Iowa as they shoot 31% in the 51-46 win. Russ Smith led the Cards in scoring with 16 pts. They will now advance to face the Missouri Tigers of the SEC who beat Stanford on their opening round game 78-70. The Tigers did go 22-25 from the FT line which helped in their win. They didn’t shoot very well from the floor and outside of Laurence Bowers 9-15, made just 17 of 56 shots.

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On paper this team looks as talented, if not more so, than the 2012 edition. But what made Missouri click last season was the fact that the players had played with each other for so long. This season coach Frank Haith finds himself charged with the task of rebuilding his team after losing 5 seniors. The Tigers have plenty of depth on this years squad but Haith must work to fit his talented newcomers, transfers Alex Oriakhi, Keion Bell, Earnest Ross, and Jabari Brown, in with his returning backcourt stars Phil Pressey and Michael Dixon. In my opinion folks aren’t gonna want any part of this team in March. But right now they are learning on the fly and still recognizing their potential.

Coach Frank Haith: “I go back to our identity,” “We’re not going to be fluid right now, offensively. That takes time. But we are gonna be tough. That’s what we can challenge them to do is play with toughness.”

In-conference offense: 1.15 points per possession (1st Big 12)
In-conference defense: 1.04 points allowed per possession (6th Big 12)

The Tiger Players:

Phil Pressey JR (15.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg) 5-11 G is one of the nation’s top returning point guards after handing out 223 assists a season ago. He excels at penetrating and either getting to the free throw line or passing to shooters. He has scored 46 pts this season and played 96 min. He had 18 pts against Stanford.

Tony Criswell JR (4.3 ppg, 5.7 rpg) 6-9 F The junior college transfer will be asked to provide depth down low. Last season at Independence (Kan-sas) Community College, he averaged 11.9 points and 6.1 rebounds. He has scored 13 pts this season and played 49 min. He had 2 pts against Stanford.

Keion Bell SR (9.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg) 6-4 G played 78 percent of Pepperdine’s minutes and took 33 percent of their shots in 2010. Bell scored 1,365 in his Pepperdine career, an average of 16.4 points per game. He’s also a stat sheet stuffer. In his sophomore season, he ranked among West Coast Conference leaders in steals, assists, free-throw per-centage and rebounding. He has scored 28 pts this season and played 72 min. He scored 8 pts against Stanford.

Michael Dixon, Jr. (0.0 ppg, 0.0 rpg) 6-1 G was suspended indefinitely by Haith for unspecified reasons in October. Averaged 26 minutes and was the Tigers’ second-leading scorer in Big 12 play when he shot 52 percent from the field. He made the trip to Atlantis and is available if Coach Haith decides to play him. He was as after the Stanford game and said it would be unlikely.

Laurence Bowers SR (15.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg) 6-8 F took a redshirt last season. He is known for his efficient offense, his defense is very good also. In his two seasons as a starter, he put up good block rates and good steal rates a rare combination for a big man. He has scored 46 pts this season and played 75 min. He scored 19 pts against Stanford.

Earnest Ross JR (13.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg) 6-5 G averaged 13.1 points per game in 2010-11 at Auburn before finding greener pastures with Haith in Columbia. He led Auburn in rebounding 13 times as a sophomore. Has scored 40 pts this season and played 74 min. He scored 10 pts against Stanford.

Alex Oriakhi SR (13.3 ppg, 11.7 rpg) 6-9 F at his best he is an efficient post player who is great on the offensive glass. He is a familiar foe from the Big East transferred to Mizzu after NCAA sanctions against UCONN. He has scored 37 pts this season and played 78 min. He scored 13 pts and had 4 reb against Stanford.

Ryan Rosburg FR (1.0 ppg, 2.3 rpg) 6-10 F has scored 3 pts this season and played 19 min. He scored 5 pts against Stanford.

Stefan Jankovic FR (5.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg) 6-11 F is a big body, but his strength at this point lies in his jump shot and on the perimeter. He has scored 15 pts this season and played 40 min. He didn’t score against Stanford.

Negus Webster-Chan FR (6.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg) 6-7 G Has 20 pts this season and played 90 min. He scored 3 pts against Stanford.

Dominique Bull FR Has not played this season.

Corey Haith FR Has not played this season.

Danny Feldmann FR Has not played this season.

Perhaps the most anticipated match-up of the tournament is the game between the Cards and the Blue Devils. The battle in the paint between Plumlee and Dieng would feature two of college basketball’s premier big men going head-to-head. But first Gorgui will have to battle with a pretty decent big man in Oriakhi. Will be interesting to see how Gorgui responds to his toughest competition yet down low.

Peyton Siva is one of the few point guards quick enough to keep up with Phil Pressey and he will hopefully play outstanding Pitino-style defense. He has been leading the nation in assists per game. But he only had 1 assist to 4 turnovers against UNI. It was expected that Siva’s assist would go down against elite competition. But in this one he is gonna have help move the ball in what will be a big jump in competition and athleticism.

The Cards have been playing a lot of man-to-man but I expect to see some zone in this one as the Tigers make a living getting in the lane.

This one should be a great one as it will feature two very talented teams. But the Cards have the advantage because our guys have been through these battles many times before. The Tigers are trying to figure out how to play together and with the lack of prep time in between these games it will hurt them. I think the Cards advance to the finals but it won’t be a cake walk.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 79 Missouri 71

THE BEAK PREVIEW: Cards vs. Huskies

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– The quest for a perfect season has ended but the journey to the Big East title is still ahead

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Our 9-1 Cards return to the gridiron on Saturday after a loss 2 weeks ago that put an end to their hopes for a perfect season. They will face a 4-6 UConn team that is feeling better about themselves after ending a 4 game losing streak with a 24-17 win over Pitt.

Coach Strong: “We won 9 games before that loss a Syracuse. We can’t let that game beat us twice. Our focus is on winning this week against UConn.”

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The Cards have had a week to regroup after the tough loss to Syracuse. They fell behind 31-10 and never recovered. Despite the lopsided loss, Teddy QB was once again solid. He threw for 424 yards and 3 touchdowns but unfortunately the Cardinals inability to stop the Orange on D was too much to overcome. Louisville gained under 50 yards on the ground and turned the ball over twice in the defeat. And even though the Cards lost their top 10 ranking, chance at a perfect season and lofty BCS standing they are still very much in the picture to win the Big East crown and go to a BCS bowl game. If they can get past UConn, they will likely face Rutgers in a season finale, winner take title showdown. UConn was able to get their mojo back after a four game losing streak. They jumped on Pitt early and never looked back. Chandler Whitmer connected with receiver Ryan Griffin for a 2 yard TD and then return man Nick Williams took a kick 80 yards to the house and UConn built a 24-0 halftime lead. Lyle McCombs had a big day for the Huskies, rushed for 120 yards and a TD on the day, and was a key reason the Huskies dominated ball control all day.

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They keys to making this UConn team go are Chandler Whitmer and Lyle McCombs. Chandler is a QB that makes good decisions and is accurate with the ball. He is a former Illinois recruit who redshirted with the Illini one year, spent last season at Butler (Kansas) Community College. He directed BCC to the No. 2 ranking in the nation while throwing for 3,022 yard and 25 touchdowns with 14 interceptions. One of the staples of the UConn offense is to have a workhorse running back. McCombs has taken over that role for this Huskies squad. He earned freshman All-American honors last year. His 95.92 yards per game ranked second in the conference and 29th in the country. Nick Williams is also a guy who is a game changer. He is explosive in the return game for UConn. If he catches the ball he is always capable of making a huge play and against a Louisville team that is vulnerable in the coverage game it could happen.

Coach Paul Pasqualoni: “We have these next two games ahead of us. We’re looking forward to winning this game and coming home for Cincinnati and winning that game as well to become bowl eligible.”

Some stats very favorable for Louisville:

-Louisville is 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games following a bye week.
-UConn is 5-24 on the road in BIG EAST games.
-UConn is 1-3 all-time in games at Louisville.
-UConn is 1-18 against ranked teams.

Anticipating a Big East title push and with a potential BCS game looming the Cards will be licking their chops to get a win. Plus it will be a day that will see 13 seniors play their last game at Papa Johns Cardinal Stadium. I think UConn will stay in the game at first but Teddy QB and company will take over and win this one going away.

The Beak Prediction:
Louisville 45 UConn 17